Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
